First Loss and missing SL

Review:

Notts C. lay position @2.04 staked 1.000 €, closed at kickoff @1.88 (first loss of 16 ticks)

Odds dropped the whole day, dont know the reason, match finished 0-0. Normally i ve a SL of 10 ticks, but unfortunatly not in this affair. Trading mistake!!!!

24.01.2012 L 80 € / profits total 127 €
w/l rate:  5-1

Low risk selections for today:

Napoli lay position @2.34 staked 1.000 €, will be closed one minute before kickoff

Barca-real lay position @1.56 over 2.5 market staked 2.000 €, (Note: one tick is 10€ in the case of sure win or loss) will be closed one minute before kickoff

Low Risk

Review:

villareal lay position @1.87 stake 1.000 €, closed at kickoff @1.92

23.01.2012 P 25 € / profits total 207 €
w/l rate:  5-0

Low risk selections for today:

Notts C. lay position @2.04 staked 1.000 €, will be closed one minute before kickoff

Expect odds of @2.10 - 2.16  at Kickoff. We should be relatively safe on the short side again.

Ghana (ANCup) Limit of @1,79 in the market to get the under 2.5, stake 1.000 €

If filled, would be closed at kickoff.

Just one for today

Review:
Both trading ideas came in yesterday and brought a total profit of 70 €.

vallecano-mallorca lay position @2.14 stake 1.000 €, closed at 2.22   Profit: 8 ticks / 40 €
HSV - Dortmund Lay position @1.91 stake 1.000 €  closed at 1.97   Profit: 6 ticks / 30 €

22.01.2012 P 70 € / profits total 182 €
w/l rate:  4-0

Low risk selection for today:

villareal lay position @1.87 stake 1.000 €, will be closed at kickoff

Expect odds of @1.95 - 2.00 + at Kickoff. We should be safe on the short side.

Sundays PM Trade Selection

Review:
Both trading ideas came in yesterday and brought a total profit of 112 €.
21.01.2012 P 112 € / profits total 112 €
w/l rate:  2-0

Low risk selections for today:

vallecano-mallorca lay position @2.14 stake 1.000 €

we should be safe here on the short side. (Stopp Loss @2.04) - Closing shortly before kickoff
Note: Staking - 10 € per tick invest (5 € after green or red close)

HSV - Dortmund Lay position @1.91 stake 1.000 €  (SL @1,81) closing at kickoff.

Expect odds of @2.00 + at Kickoff.
Note: i do simple but very successful value procedere. For this matchup i.e. : i rate the probability of a odds drift to @2.02 compared with a drift to 1,81 at the ratio of 60-40. Ergo: Value trade

I m  a little bit busy today, so more in refer to this subject in another post.

Bundesliga I is back

First trading thoughts and positions:

Yesterday i took a Premarket Trading-Lay on Freiburg at @2.20 with a 900 € stake because Freiburg is heavily overpriced at these odds on the basis of the transfers and the events in the winter break. On the other hand Augsburg in a clearly up-trend. Think i m safe on the short side with a @ 2.2 entry up to the kickoff time. Expect a 2.40 at 15.30. Will close the trade shortly before kickoff.

I m aktually trying to stop in the PM market under/over 2.5 (Wolfsburg-Köln) with back limits scaling the range @2.46 up to 2.52. Hope i ll get a remarkable position. These prices (@2,44 and higher) are effected solely on the basis of sore stats in the past !!!!! ( nothing but smoke and mirrors). Expect a slowly start in the first match after winterbreak and that the market is realizing this hopefully before kickoff. Bad weather will probably support the trading idea. Otherwise i will take the risk and track the first 5-10 minutes to watch in-play in search of confirming my trading-plan to scale out afterwards.

Will give a short update before kickoff!!

Update:

Freiburg closed at @ 2,46

Wolfsburg:  Closing Lay Limit @2.38 to stay in-play

Stats - Nothing but smoke and mirrors

Nice discussion around in various blogs about a mostly overrated subject, "mathematical approach". In the view of undergroundtrading it goes like this:
With the assistance of maths you solely describe the past! The past is almost nothing but smoke and mirrors, you could it solely take as indicator what the mass are thinking about the event and reference point for bookies and punters. Next step is to take a look at the present (i.e taking into account change the manager, upcoming CL match and so on), to scale the own expectations. Pretended a little bit more experienced traders are going now to define value or not by comparing reference point on maths with scaled "Odds" and given odds. ok, so far so good but real undergroundtrading and value riding is starting only now. You have to think about future aspects (exspectations) or better yet to have "valuable" informations about the future (i.e manager will announce "parking the bus" in the team briefing, heavy snow at match time, ...)
Thinking about what most likely will happen or of course insider informations define the real value and give you the edge.
Just want to sharpen punters mind not to stay in the past and to look "under the ground" of upcoming trading opportunities. Trade the third dimension (future)vs (past,present)!
Looking forward to give you a real trading example in one of my first postings on my new blog. Perhaps already this weekend in German Bundesliga I or II, where i "get deeper insights"


Cheers undergroundtrader